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Kediska Jilicsanaanta Jilicsan iyo Holt-Winters

Is barbar dhig fudud, Holt iyo Holt-Winters silcinta, oo waafaqid wax-ku-darka ama isku-dhufashada xilliyada si loo eego qaababka xilliyeedka.

Wadooyinka haga ee la xidhiidhaJiilaallaha Jilicsan ee Jilicsan iyo Holt
Su'aal 1 ee 8

In simple exponential smoothing, what does a larger alpha do?

Horudhac su'aal kasta8 su'aalo

Jawaabaha iyo sharraxaadaha waxay soo baxayaan markaad qaadanayso kediska.

  1. In simple exponential smoothing, what does a larger alpha do?
    • It gives the newest observation more influence on the updated level
    • It increases the number of seasonal periods
    • It sets every forecast equal to the sample maximum
    • It removes the level state
  2. Which component does Holt's method add beyond simple exponential smoothing?
    • A seasonal state
    • A trend state
    • A moving-average error component
    • A multiplicative response link
  3. When may additive seasonality be a reasonable choice?
    • There is no recurring seasonal pattern to model
    • Seasonal amplitude grows in proportion to the series level
    • Seasonal effects remain roughly fixed in absolute size
    • Seasonal variation should be omitted from the forecast
  4. When might multiplicative seasonality be considered?
    • The seasonal period is unknown by definition
    • Seasonal effects remain the same number of units
    • All observed values are negative
    • Seasonal variation scales with the series level
  5. What does the smoothing parameter beta control in Holt's method?
    • The weight for updating the level
    • How the trend state is updated
    • The weight for updating the seasonal state
    • The damping factor for extrapolating the trend
  6. Which setting specifies the number of observations in a seasonal cycle?
    • The smoothing weight used for seasonal updates
    • The number of periods used in seasonal differencing
    • The number of observations in a complete seasonal cycle
    • The number of forecast steps returned
  7. Why compare a Holt-Winters model with a seasonal-naive baseline?
    • To force all smoothing parameters to zero
    • To prove the seasonal period is exact
    • To avoid inspecting residual seasonality
    • To check whether added smoothing structure improves later forecasts
  8. How does a damped trend affect longer-horizon extrapolation?
    • It reduces how strongly the trend continues into longer forecasts
    • It extrapolates the estimated trend unchanged at every horizon
    • It removes the seasonal state after the first forecast
    • It forces the level update to zero after one step