Overview
AI mamiriro ekunze anodzidza mapatani emuchadenga zvakananga kubva kumakumi emakore ezvapfuura, achigadzira fungidziro yemazuva gumi mumasekonzi inokwikwidza kana kurova iyo fizikisi-yakavakirwa supercomputer modhi iyo yakatora maawa kumhanya. Izvi zviri kugadziridza nzira iyo nyanzvi dzemamiriro ekunze dzinofanotaura madutu, mafungu ekupisa, uye madutu.
AI muKufembera Kwemamiriro ekunze inoshandisa AI munharaunda-yakananga nharaunda uko mirau, mashandiro, uye kushivirira njodzi inogadzirisa zvakanyanya sarudzo dzekugadzira.
Deep Dive
Kwemakore makumi manomwe, kufembera kwemamiriro ekunze kwaireva kugadzirisa equation yefizikisi yemvura pamakomputa makuru makuru - maitiro anonzi manhamba emamiriro ekunze (NWP). AI inotenderedza maitiro aya: mhando dzakaita se Google DeepMind's GraphCast, Huawei's Pangu-Weather, uye NVIDIA's FourCastNet vakadzidziswa paERA5 reanalysis dataset, angangoita makore makumi mana eawa imwe neimwe yepasirese mamiriro ekunze. Ivo vanodzidza hukama hwenhamba pakati pemhepo yanhasi neyamangwana, vozofanotaura nekuenzanisa-pateni pane kutevedzera fizikisi. GraphCast inogadzira fungidziro yepasirese yemazuva gumi pa0.25-degree resolution mukati meminiti imwe paTPU imwe chete, zvichienzaniswa nemaawa pane supercomputer cluster. Muna 2023, GraphCast yakapfuura goridhe-yakajairwa ECMWF modhi pane akawanda akasiyana. IEuropean Center ikozvino inomhanyisa yayo inoshanda AI modhi, AIFS.
Technical Insight
GraphCast inomiririra pasi rose segirafu: mambure akawanda emanodhi akabatana pazvikero zvakawanda, zvichiita kuti ruzivo rwupararire munharaunda nekuyambuka madaro marefu mumatanho mashoma. Girafu neural network inopinza yazvino uye isati yaitika mamiriro emuchadenga, yozofanotaura mamiriro acho maawa matanhatu pamberi. Kufembera mazuva gumi, inodyisa yayo kubuda mu autoregressively, makumi mana nguva. Kudzidzira kunokwidziridza chikanganiso chakaremerwa pamazinga ekumanikidza uye zvinosiyana zvakaita setembiricha, mhepo, uye hunyoro.
Kubata AI muKufembera Kwemamiriro ekunze
AI mamiriro ekunze anodzidza mapatani emuchadenga zvakananga kubva kumakumi emakore ezvapfuura, achigadzira fungidziro yemazuva gumi mumasekonzi inokwikwidza kana kurova iyo fizikisi-yakavakirwa supercomputer modhi iyo yakatora maawa kumhanya. Izvi zviri kugadziridza nzira iyo nyanzvi dzemamiriro ekunze dzinofanotaura madutu, mafungu ekupisa, uye madutu. AI muKufembera Kwemamiriro ekunze inoshandisa AI munharaunda-yakananga nharaunda uko mirau, mashandiro, uye kushivirira njodzi inogadzirisa zvakanyanya sarudzo dzekugadzira. Kuvaka kunzwisisa kwakadzama, bata AI muKufembera Kwemamiriro ekunze semuenzaniso wekushandisa, kwete chinhu chimwe chete: tsanangura zvinodikanwa, kujekesa fungidziro, uye patsanura izvo zvinogona kuitwa nehurongwa hwakavimbika kubva kune zvichiri kuda kutonga kwenyanzvi.
Mukuita, zvikwata zvakasimba zvinoshandisa AI muMamiriro ekunze Forecasting inonanisa kugona kwehunyanzvi nedomendi mutemo, kutarisika, uye kumberi kwekuita sarudzo. Ivo vanonyora zvakajeka maitiro ebudiriro, bvunzo vachipokana ne data rechokwadi uye mafambiro ebasa, uye iterate zvichibva pane zvakacherechedzwa maitiro ekutadza kwete kuhwina-nguva imwe chete yebhenji. Apa ndipo apo kunzwisisa kwe theoretical kunoshanduka kuve kugona kwakasimba pane chigadzirwa, mutemo, uye mashandiro.
Mamiriro eindasitiri anosarudza kana mazano eAI achirarama nekusangana neicho chaicho. Panguva imwecheteyo, Regulatory zvinodiwa zvinogona kusashanda neimwe nzira yakasimba prototypes. Nzira yakatsiga ndeyekubatanidza kukurumidza kuyedza nekutonga: mhanyisa vatyairi vendege, tora humbowo, buritsa matanda esarudzo, uye urambe uchivandudza chengetedzo semaitiro emuenzaniso, zvinotarisirwa nemushandisi, uye zvinodikanwa zvekutonga.
Strategic Impact
Mamiriro eindasitiri anosarudza kana mazano eAI achirarama nekusangana neicho chaicho.
Mamiriro eindasitiri anosarudza kana mazano eAI achirarama nekusangana neicho chaicho. Mukutumirwa kwemhando yepamusoro, izvi zvinoshandurirwa kuita mitemo inoyerwa yekushanda, miganhu yevaridzi, uye tsika dzekudzokorora dzinodzokororwa kuitira kuti zvikwata zvikwire kuvimba pane kukwidza kusajeka.
Zvisungo zveDomain zvinopesvedzera mwero wezvikanganiso zvinogamuchirika uye mamodheru etarisiro.
Zvisungo zveDomain zvinopesvedzera mwero wezvikanganiso zvinogamuchirika uye mamodheru etarisiro. Mukutumirwa kwemhando yepamusoro, izvi zvinoshandurirwa kuita mitemo inoyerwa yekushanda, miganhu yevaridzi, uye tsika dzekudzokorora dzinodzokororwa kuitira kuti zvikwata zvikwire kuvimba pane kukwidza kusajeka.
Kuendesa kwakabudirira kunonanisa kugona kwehunyanzvi nekumberi kwekufambiswa kwebasa.
Kuendesa kwakabudirira kunonanisa kugona kwehunyanzvi nekumberi kwekufambiswa kwebasa. Mukutumirwa kwemhando yepamusoro, izvi zvinoshandurirwa kuita mitemo inoyerwa yekushanda, miganhu yevaridzi, uye tsika dzekudzokorora dzinodzokororwa kuitira kuti zvikwata zvikwire kuvimba pane kukwidza kusajeka.
Real-World Implementation
Google DeepMind's GraphCast inogadzira fungidziro yepasi rose yemazuva gumi mukati meminiti imwe chete, inoshandiswa kuratidza mafambiro emadutu mazuva pachine nguva.
ECMWF inomhanyisa modhi yayo yeAIFS kuti ienderane neyayo yechinyakare fizikisi-yakavakirwa kufanotaura kweEuropean mamiriro ekunze.
NVIDIA's FourCastNet inokurumidza kugadzira ensembles hombe kufungidzira mukana wemhepo yakanyanyisa uye zviitiko zvekunaya kwemvura.
GenCast inogadzira probabilistic ensemble fungidziro inokunda ECMWF's ENS pa97 muzana yezvakaedzwa mamiriro ekunze, kuvandudza tropical cyclone track gwara.
Maitiro Ekuita
AI muKufembera Kwemamiriro ekunze mukuita
Google DeepMind's GraphCast inogadzira fungidziro yepasi rose yemazuva gumi mukati meminiti imwe chete, inoshandiswa kuratidza mafambiro emadutu kuchine mazuva.
Google DeepMind's GraphCast inogadzira fungidziro yepasirese yemazuva gumi mukati meminiti imwe chete, inoshandiswa kuratidza nzira yemadutu mazuva kumberi Zvikwata zvinowanzowana mibairo iri nani pazvinenge zvichitsanangudza mabhindauko emhando kumberi, chengetedza nzira yekukwira kwevanhu yemakesi emupendero, uye kuronda zvese zviri zviviri mutengo wekubereka.
AI muKufembera Kwemamiriro ekunze mukuita
ECMWF inomhanyisa modhi yayo yeAIFS kuti ienderane neyayo yechinyakare fizikisi-yakavakirwa mafambiro eEuropean mamiriro ekunze.
ECMWF inomhanyisa modhi yayo yeAIFS kuzadzisa fungidziro yayo yechinyakare yefizikisi yeEuropean mamiriro ekunze masevhisi Matimu anowanzo kuwana mhedzisiro iri nani kana achinge atsanangura hunhu hwepamberi, chengetedza nzira yekukwira kwevanhu yemakesi emupendero, uye kuteedzera zvese zvakawanikwa zvechigadzirwa uye mutengo wekukanganisa nekufamba kwenguva.
AI muKufembera Kwemamiriro ekunze mukuita
NVIDIA's FourCastNet inokurumidza kugadzira ensembles hombe kufungidzira mukana wemhepo yakanyanyisa uye zviitiko zvekunaya kwemvura.
NVIDIA's FourCastNet inokurumidza kugadzira ensembles hombe kufungidzira mukana wemhepo yakanyanyisa uye zviitiko zvekunaya kwemvura Matimu anowanzo kuwana mibairo iri nani kana achinge atsanangura zvikumbaridzo zvemhando yepamusoro kumberi, chengetedza nzira yekukwira kwevanhu yemakesi emupendero, uye kuteedzera zvese zvakawanikwa zvechigadzirwa uye mutengo wekukanganisa nekufamba kwenguva.
AI muKufembera Kwemamiriro ekunze mukuita
GenCast inogadzira probabilistic ensemble fungidziro inorova ECMWF's ENS pa97 muzana yezvakaedzwa mamiriro ekunze, kuvandudza tropical cyclone track gwara.
GenCast inogadzira probabilistic ensemble fungidziro inokunda ENS yeECMWF pa97 muzana yezvakaedzwa mamiriro ekunze, kuvandudza tropical cyclone track gwara Matimu anowanzo kuwana mhedzisiro iri nani kana achinge atsanangura emhando yepamusoro kumberi, chengetedza nzira yekukwira kwevanhu yemakesi ekumucheto, uye kuteedzera zvese zvakawanikwa zvechigadzirwa nemitengo yekukanganisa nekufamba kwenguva.
Njodzi & Guardrails
Regulatory zvinodiwa zvinogona kukanganisa zvimwe zvakasimba prototypes.
Nhoroondo yenhoroondo inogona kubatanidza kurerekera kunokuvadza nharaunda dzakati.
Nhaka masisitimu anogona kugadzira mabhodhoro ekubatanidza uye mitengo yakavanzika.
Implementation Roadmap
Batanidza domain nyanzvi kubva pakugadzirisa dambudziko kusvika pakuongorora.
Batanidza domain nyanzvi kubva pakugadzirisa dambudziko kusvika pakuongorora. Bata nhanho yega yega segedhi rehumbowo: kana maitiro asina kusangana, imbomira kuburitsa, vhara gaka, uye wobva wawedzera kushandiswa.
Dhizaina nzira dzekuongorora uye zvinyorwa zvisati zvatanga.
Dhizaina nzira dzekuongorora uye zvinyorwa zvisati zvatanga. Bata nhanho yega yega segedhi rehumbowo: kana maitiro asina kusangana, imbomira kuburitsa, vhara gaka, uye wobva wawedzera kushandiswa.
Gadzirisa zvisungo zvekuteedzera uye kuchengetedza nekukurumidza.
Gadzirisa zvisungo zvekuteedzera uye kuchengetedza nekukurumidza. Bata nhanho yega yega segedhi rehumbowo: kana maitiro asina kusangana, imbomira kuburitsa, vhara gaka, uye wobva wawedzera kushandiswa.
Buritsa muzvikamu zvine kujeka kumira uye kudzoreredza maitiro.
Buritsa muzvikamu zvine kujeka kumira uye kudzoreredza maitiro. Bata nhanho yega yega segedhi rehumbowo: kana maitiro asina kusangana, imbomira kuburitsa, vhara gaka, uye wobva wawedzera kushandiswa.