Chii chaitika
Fortune inoshuma kuti AI hyperscaleers iri kupa zvikwereti zvakakura zvekubhadhara machipisi, nzvimbo dzedata uye zvivakwa zvine hukama uku iyo US Treasury yakatarisana nenhoroondo yakakura yekukwereta. Ichitaura nemuongorori weWall Street Ed Yardeni, chirevo chinoti kudiwa kwemabhondi emakambani ane chekuita neAI kwaita kuti mari yavo yegoho irambe yakatsikirirwa, zvichikonzera kuti Treasury iwane yakakwirira sezvo vanoisa mari vachibvisa mari kubva kuchikwereti chehurumende. Fortune anoshuma zvakare kuti yakavanzika kiredhiti uye off-balance-sheet kukwereta kuri kuwedzera pakuwedzera kwemari, ukuwo S&P Global yakayambira nezvekuwedzera kuneta kwemusika.
Fortune inoshuma kuti hurumende yeUS iri kukwikwidza bhizimusi remusika nemakambani ehunyanzvi ari kuita nekukurumidza AI kuvaka-kunze. Chirevo ichi chinoisa makwikwi ekumashure anosvika zviuru makumi mana zvemadhora muchikwereti cheUS, kushomeka kwemubatanidzwa kunofungidzirwa neFortune kuti isvike madhora mazana maviri emadhora mugore razvino remari, uye mutengo wepagore wekubhadhara chikwereti unosvika madhora miriyoni imwe. Nhamba idzi dzinoratidzwa naFortune; chinyorwa chakapihwa hachibatanidzi ari pasi pePfuma kana magwaro ebhajeti kuti azvisimbise. Iyo yepakati yakashumwa budiriro chiyero uye kuenderera kwekukwereta kwemakambani kwakabatana neAI zvivakwa, kwete itsva AI modhi kana chigadzirwa chevatengi.
Fortune inoshuma kuti mari yekudyara-giredhi corporate bond yakasvika inosvika $1.7 trillion gore kusvika nhasi kusvika munaChikunguru, ingangoita 27% pamusoro peiyo nhanho yakaenzana gore rapfuura uye munzira yekupfuura $2 tiririyoni kekutanga, sekureva kwaEd Yardeni. Ongororo yaYardeni, sekutsanangurwa kwazvakaitwa naFortune, inoti mabhondi ane hukama neAI akakwezva kudiwa kwakakwana kuti goho ravo ripararire pamusoro pechikwereti chisina njodzi chePfuma chakaramba chakamanikidzwa. Mumhinduro yakajairika yemusika, kuwedzera kukuru kwekukwereta kwemakambani kunowanzoda kuti makambani ape goho repamusoro kukwezva vatengi. Fortune inoshuma kuti gadziriso iyi inogona kunge iri kuitika muchikamu kuburikidza nepamusoro peGoho rePfuma.
Chinyorwa chinotsanangura izvi sechimiro che "reverse kutsvikinyidzana," nekuti capital inofamba mumabhondi emakambani ihombe risisiri kufamba muPfuma. Fortune anoshuma kuti Yardeni akati goho rePfuma saka raifanira kusimuka kuti ribvise musika, ukuwo achicherekedza kuti Yardeni akaratidzira mhedzisiro seyakanyanya kuwanda-kunze maitiro. Fortune inoshuma zvakare kuti data repasi rose-rinoyerera rinoratidza vatengi vekunze-vekunze vakatenga akawanda eUS corporate bond pane chikwereti cheTreasury mugore rapfuura. Chirevo chakapihwa hachipi iyo data nhevedzano, iyo chaiyo tsananguro yeAI-inoenderana mabhondi, kana kuparara kwekutenga kunze kwenyika, saka saizi yezvakarehwa mhedzisiro haigone kuongororwa yakazvimirira pano.
Fortune inoshuma kuti Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent akaona makambani 'kuda kuburitsa chikwereti kunyangwe mari yekukwereta. Chinyorwa ichi chinotora Bessent ichitsanangura kuburitswa kwemakambani makuru sekunge "goho-agnostic" nekuti makambani anotenda kuti AI zvivakwa zvinodzoka zvichakwira zvakakwana. Fortune anoshuma zvakare kuti Sachigaro weFederal Reserve Kevin Warsh akataura mukutaura kweJackson Hole kukuwedzera madziva emari inoyerera muAI-inoenderana nezvivakwa. Mashoko aya anoratidza kuti vakuru vezvemitemo vanoziva nezvekuwedzera kwemari, asi havaratidzi kuti kukwereta kweAI ndicho chikonzero chikuru chekufamba kweTreasury-goho.
Kwakabva mashoko: fortune.com ↗
Nei zvichikosha
Iyo inonzi ine simba inogona kukwidza mari yehurumende yekukwereta panguva iyo Fortune anoti chikwereti cheAmerica chasvika pamadhora matrillioni makumi mana, defisiti iri munzira yekusvika madhora matrillioni maviri pagore remari, uye mari yekubhadhara zvikwereti pagore inosvika madhora bhiriyoni imwe. Yakakwira Treasury goho inogona kuwedzera mari yemubereko uye kuomesera mutemo wemari. Kune makambani eAI, nyaya yacho inoratidzawo kuti mari yakawanda inogona kuwedzera kudhura kana varimi vakada muripo wakakura wekuwedzera kwekuwedzera. Nhoroondo yeFortune hairatidze kuti yakawanda sei yekufamba muhoho yePfuma inokonzereswa zvakananga nekukwereta kweAI.
Kana iyo nzira inotsanangurwa naFortune ikaramba ichienderera, inogona kubatanidza yakavanzika AI yekudyara kutenderera kumari yekukwereta yeruzhinji. Kukwira kwegoho reTreasury kunowedzera mubereko unopihwa nehurumende kubhadhara chikwereti chitsva uye kunogona kukwidza mutengo wekubhadhara zvakare zvisungo zviripo. Fortune inoshuma kuti mitengo yakakwira yekusevhisi inogona kuwedzera kushomeka, izvo zvingada kukwereta zvakanyanya uye zvichigona kugadzira mhinduro yechikwereti chakakura, goho repamusoro uye mari yemubereko yakakwira. Ndiyo mamiriro enjodzi akashumwa, kwete fungidziro yakasimbiswa. Chinyorwa ichi hachiverenge kuti yakawanda sei mari yekuwedzera yemubereko yehurumende inogona kuverengerwa kuAI-inoenderana nekuburitswa kwekambani.
Iyo nyaya yakakoshawo pakunzwisisa hwaro hwemari yeAI kuvaka-kunze. Chirevo ichi chinoti makambani ari kukwereta kutenga machipisi, kuvaka nzvimbo dzedhata uye kuvandudza zvimwe zvivakwa, ukuwo kiredhiti yakazvimirira iri kupa mari chikamu chekuwedzera uye Nvidia iri kushandisa pepa rayo kutsigira zvibvumirano zveAI. Fortune anoti imwe tally inoisa "kukwereta kwakavanzika" pamadhora 1.65 matiriyoni, asi chinyorwa chakapihwa hachione maitiro eiyo tally kana kutsanangura hurongwa hwachinosanganisira. Pasina ruzivo irworwo, vaverengi havagone kuona kana nhamba yacho ichimiririra chikwereti chekambani, garandi, marendi, zvisungo zvechikwereti zvakazvimiririra kana zvimwe zvisungo.
Kune vanoisa mari uye vanoita zvemitemo, kunetsana kwakashumwa kuri pakati pekuvimba mune ramangwana reAI rinodzoka uye mukana wekuti kuwedzera kuri kukura nekukurumidza kupfuura kunofungidzirwa kuyerera kwemari. Fortune inotaura yambiro yeS&P Global yekuti ma hyperscalers ari kubhadhara mari yepamusoro inoenderana negoho risina njodzi uye kuti vatori vechikamu pamusika vari kutyira kukurumidza kusimuka pakati pevanopa vaimboonekwa sevakavimbika mune zvemari. Zvazvinoreva hazvireve kuti mari yeAI yakamira, asi kuti mutengo wayo uye njodzi inogona kunge ichiwedzera kuoneka. Nzvimbo yacho hairatidze kana chero mupi akapotsa kubhadhara, akatarisana nekushomeka kwemari kana kuderedzwa kwekuvaka kwakarongwa.
Interactive Mechanism: Iyo Inonyatsoshanda
Ongorora ari pasi tekinoroji kuseri kwekusimudzira uku uchipindirana.
What should a useful AI forecast state?
Zvekutarisa zvinotevera
Mibvunzo yakakosha ndeyekuti AI-inoenderana nekuburitswa kwemakambani inoramba ichipfuura kumwe kukwereta, kana goho richipararira richiwedzera, uye kana goho rePfuma richiramba richikwira sezvo vanoisa mari vachiongorora njodzi. Vaverengi vanofanirawo kutarisa data rakajeka pamusoro pekukwereta kwe hyperscalers, kuti chikwereti chakawanda sei chiri kusimudzwa, uye chiyero cheyakavanzika-kiredhiti uye imwe mari isina kunanga. Fortune inoratidza kushomeka kwemubatanidzwa, mitengo yakakwira yemafuta yakabatana nehondo yeIran uye kudzvanywa kweinflation kubva kuhupfumi hwakasimba sedzimwe tsananguro, saka iyo AI mhedzisiro haifanirwe kubatwa sechikonzero chega chekuchinja kwemusika.
Hunotevera humbowo hunobatsira hungava dhata rekuburitswa kwekambani uye kuburitswa pachena kuri kuitwa mari yakakweretwa. Vagadziri vemari uye vaverengi vanofanirwa kutarisa mitsva yemabhondi kubva kumakambani makuru eAI zvivakwa, goho uye maturities akabatanidzwa kwavari, uye kuti inopararira pamusoro pePfuma inokura. Idzo ruzivo rwaizobatsira kusiyanisa kudiwa kwakasimba kwekudyara kunobereka kubva pakukwereta zvinoenderana nefungidziro isingawanzo fungidziro pamusoro pemari yemangwana AI. Chirevo chaFortune hachizivise munhu ane hyperscalers ane chekuita nekuburitswa kwakatsanangurwa mumusoro wenyaya, izvo zvinoramba zvisingazivikanwi.
Treasury-musika zviratidzo zvine basa zvakare. Kukwira kwakasimba kwegoho reokisheni, kushomeka kushoma pakutengesa chikwereti chehurumende, kana gaka riri kukura pakati pekugoverwa kwemakambani neTreasury kunogona kutsigira nzira inotsanangurwa neYardeni. Asi mafambiro aya angangove aine tsananguro dzakawanda. Fortune inonyora kushaikwa kukuru kwemubatanidzwa, mitengo yakakwira yemafuta yakabatana nehondo yeIran uye hupfumi hwakasimba hwekukwira kwemitengo sevamwe vabatsiri kune goho repamusoro rePfuma. Iyo yakapihwa sosi haipe kuora kunoratidza yakazvimirira mupiro weAI-inoenderana nekukwereta, saka zvichemo zvekukonzeresa zvakananga zvinofanirwa kuramba zvichikodzera.
Chekupedzisira, tarisa kana kunetseka kwemusika kuchichinja maitiro emakambani. Fortune inoshuma kuti S&P Global yatoona zviratidzo zvekuneta mushure mekunge musika watora chikwereti chakakura munguva pfupi. Kumwe kuwedzera kwemitengo yekukwereta kunogona kuita kuti makambani anonoke mapurojekiti epakati pedata, kutsvaga imwe mari yekuenzana, kutauriranazve gadziriro dzekugovera kana kuvimba zvakanyanya nechikwereti chakavanzika. Sezvineiwo, kuenderera mberi kuburitswa pakupararira kunogoneka kungaratidza kuti vatengesi varambe vachida kupa mari yekuvaka-kunze. Chirevo ichi hachipi nguva yekuchinja kwakadaro, uye haitsigire yakazvimiririra kuongororwa kwemusika, saka mafaera anotevera, dhata remusika wechikwereti uye mamwe marepoti achadikanwa kuona kana iyi iri nzira yenguva pfupi yekubhadhara mari kana shanduko yakasimba.