OkulandelayoUmhlahlandlela olandelayo
Ilebula ethi Smoothing
Okuyisisekelo
UMHLAHLANDLELA Wobuchwepheshe
I-Exponential Smoothing ne-Holt-Winters
I-Exponential smoothing izibikezelo zochungechunge ngokubuyekeza ileveli yayo ngenhlanganisela enesisindo yokuqaphela kwakamuva nezilinganiso zangaphambili, okunikeza ulwazi olusha umthelela omkhulu.
Kuleli khasi3 min ifundiwe
Uhlolojikelele
Indlela ka-Holt yengeza ithrendi futhi i-Holt-Winters yengeza inkathi yonyaka, enesakhiwo esingeziwe noma esiphindaphindayo esikhethwa ukufanisa indlela i-amplitude yesizini eziphatha ngayo.
I-Deep Dive
Izindlela zokushelela okucacile zigcina izilinganiso eziguqukayo zeleveli yochungechunge, ithrendi kanye, lapho kudingeka, iphethini yesizini. Ukushelela okulula kwe-exponential kuvuselela ileveli kusetshenziswa ukubonwa okusha kanye neleveli yangaphambilini. Ipharamitha eshelelayo ye-alpha phakathi kukaziro nokukodwa ilawula ukuphendula: amanani amakhulu abeka isisindo esiningi ekuqapheliseni kwakamuva, kuyilapho amanani aphansi enza ileveli ibe bushelelezi. Umthelela wokubhekwa okudala ukubola ngokwejometri ngezibuyekezo eziphindaphindiwe. Indlela yomugqa kaHolt yengeza isimo sethrendi, esivame ukubuyekezwa kusetshenziswa ipharamitha yesibili ye-beta. I-Holt-Winters ingeza isimo sesizini, ibuyekezwa nge-gamma, futhi idinga isikhathi sesizini esifana nezingu-12 zomjikelezo wanyanga zonke wonyaka. Amamodeli esizini engeziwe imiphumela yesizini cishe amanani aphelele angashintshi. Amamodeli esizini amaningi asebenza njengezilinganiso zeleveli futhi awafaneleki lapho ukubhekwa noma izingxenye zenza ukuphindaphinda kungachazwa kahle, njengamavelu angewona amahle ngaphansi kokwakheka okujwayelekile. Kumthengisi ocatshangelwayo, inani eliphakeme lesizini elingamayunithi angaba ngu-100 ngaphezu kwesisekelo kukho kokubili isidingo esiphansi nesiphezulu siphakamisa isikhathi sonyaka esingeziwe. Uma inani eliphakeme licishe libe ngu-10% ngaphezu kwesisekelo kuzo zombili izinkathi, izikhathi zonyaka eziphindaphindayo zingase zifaneleke kakhulu. Lawa maphethini kufanele ahlolwe kunokuba kucatshangwe. Izindlela zethrendi ezidayisiwe zehlisa ukuthrenda okungeziwe kuma-horizons amade, okungagwema ukukhula okungenamkhawulo okungenakuqhathaniswa. Amamodeli wesimo sezwe ashelelayo wesimanje axhuma ithrendi kanye nokukhetha kwesizini nokuqagela kwamaphutha anezelayo noma aphindaphindayo, avame ukufinyezwa njenge-ETS. Imodeli ingakhiqiza izikhawu zokubikezela ngaphansi kokuqagela kwayo kwe-stochastic. Izindlela ezishelelayo azizona nje izilinganiso ezihambayo: izibuyekezo zazo zesimo zichaza ukuthi ulwazi lushintsha kanjani ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Khetha izingxenye bese ulinganisela amapharamitha ashelelayo usebenzisa idatha yokuqeqesha, qhathanisa nezisekelo ezilula zesizini ekuqinisekiseni oku-odwe isikhathi, futhi uhlole izinsalela zethrendi esele noma isizini. Izinguquko ekuziphatheni kwesizini, idatha yesikhashana kanye nokungenelela okungazelelwe kungase kudinge amamodeli ahlukene noma okuhlukile okuyizincazelo ezicacile.
I-Strategic Impact
Izindleko kanye nesabelomali
Izinqumo zezakhiwo ziqhuba ukusebenza kanye nezindleko zokusebenza iminyaka.
Izinqumo ezicacile
Imfundo yobuchwepheshe isiza amaqembu ukuthi akhethe isitaki esifanele, hhayi nje esisha.
Ukulawulwa kwekhwalithi
Izinketho ezingcono zobunjiniyela zinciphisa izehlakalo ezinokwethenjelwa ekukhiqizeni.
Ikusasa Le-Exponential Smoothing kanye ne-Holt-Winters
Amaqembu okubikezela angasebenzisa ukushelela kwe-exponential ngokuzibophezela okukhulu ngokubonisa izingxenye zeleveli, ithrendi kanye nesizini ehambisana namanani omlando nezikhawu zokubikezela. Kufanele baqhathanise amafomu okungeza naphindaphindekayo nezisekelo ezifanele zesizini futhi bahlaziye ezikhathini ezizayo. Njengoba ukuziphatha kushintsha, qapha isizini eyinsalela kanye nokuchema kwesibikezelo kunokuba ucabange ukuthi amaphethini esizini angashintshi ayaqhubeka. Amathrendi angcolile angase abe usizo lapho ukukhula okuqhubekayo kungaqinisekile, kodwa kufanele kuqinisekiswe umkhathizwe wokuhlela. Ukubika okungcono kufanele kucacise ukuthi yiziphi izingxenye eziqhuba i-extrapolation nokuthi kungakanani ukungaqiniseki okushiya imodeli efakiwe.
Ukuqaliswa Komhlaba Wangempela
Isibikezelo sevolumu yekholi ecatshangelwayo sisebenzisa ukushelela okulula kwe-exponential nge-alpha 0.3. Ukuqaphela okusha kakhulu kuthola isisindo esingu-0.3 ekubuyekezweni kwezinga elilandelayo, kuyilapho ukuthonya okudala konakala ngenxa yezibuyekezo ezilandelayo.
Uchungechunge lukhuphuka ngenani elifanayo lamayunithi inyanga ngayinye, ngakho-ke ukuthambekela okungeziwe kuka-Holt kuyacatshangelwa. Uma ithrendi ibonakala ikhula ngokulinganayo, ukumelwa kwesitayela esimanzi noma okuphindaphindeka kungase kuqhathaniswe ngokuqaphela.
Ukuthengisa kwanyanga zonke kuneziqongo zesizini usayizi wazo okhula ngezinga lochungechunge. Ingxenye yesizini ephindaphindayo ingase ilingane naleyo phethini kangcono kunesamba esingeziwe sesizini esingashintshi, uma nje amanani asekela imisebenzi ephindaphindayo.
Umhlaziyi uqhathanisa izibikezelo zesizini-naive neze-Holt-Winters ezinyangeni ezizayo futhi uhlola isizini eyinsalela kunokukhetha amapharamitha ashelelayo kuphela ngokulingana kokuqeqeshwa.
Izingozi & Guardrails
Ukuthuthukisa ibhentshimakhi eyodwa kungafihla ubuthakathaka obubanzi besistimu.
Izindleko zengqalasizinda nezokulungisa zivame ukubukelwa phansi.
Izikhala zokuphepha nokubonakala zingakhula njengoba izinhlelo ziba nzima kakhulu.
Ukuqalisa Umhlahlandlela
Chaza ukubambezeleka, ikhwalithi, nezindleko ezihlosiwe ngaphambi kokuqaliswa.
Ibhentshimakhi ngaphansi komthwalo wangempela nezimo zedatha.
Ukuqapha amathuluzi amaphutha, ukukhukhuleka, nomthelela wabasebenzisi.
Lungiselela izindlela zokuhlehlisa nezigameko ngaphambi kokukala.
Qhubeka Uhlole
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Imibuzo evame ukubuzwa
Iyini i-Exponential Smoothing ne-Holt-Winters?
I-Exponential smoothing izibikezelo zochungechunge ngokubuyekeza ileveli yayo ngenhlanganisela enesisindo yokuqaphela kwakamuva nezilinganiso zangaphambili, okunikeza ulwazi olusha umthelela omkhulu. Indlela ka-Holt yengeza ithrendi futhi i-Holt-Winters yengeza inkathi yonyaka, enesakhiwo esingeziwe noma esiphindaphindayo esikhethwa ukufanisa indlela i-amplitude yesizini eziphatha ngayo.
Ngokushelela okulula kwe-exponential, yenzani i-alpha enkulu?
Ukubuyekeza ileveli kukala ukubonwa okusha kwe-alpha, ngakho i-alpha enkulu iphendula idatha yakamuva.
Kunini lapho okungezwayo kwesizini kungase kube ukukhetha okunengqondo?
Isizini engeziwe imelela cishe umehluko oqhubekayo wesizini esikalini somphumela.
Kunini lapho kungase kucatshangelwe khona isizini yokuphindaphinda?
Imiphumela yesizini ephindaphindwayo ilingana nezinga, kungaphansi kokuqagela okuvumelekile kwesikali esihle.
Ilawula ini ipharamitha ye-beta endleleni kaHolt?
I-Beta ibusa ukubuyekeza ingxenye yethrendi ngezindlela zesitayela se-Holt.
Isiphi isilungiselelo esicacisa inombolo yokubhekwa emjikelezweni wesizini?
Isikhathi sesizini sichaza ubude bomjikelezo, njengezinyanga eziyi-12 zesizini yonyaka kudatha yanyanga zonke.
Qhubeka ufunda
Iziqondiso ezihlobene
Imihlahlandlela eyengeziwe yalesi sihloko