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Lead scoring ranks or estimates the likelihood of a defined conversion using information about prospective customers.
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A model’s score is a decision aid whose usefulness depends on outcome definitions, data quality, class balance and evaluation.
A predictive lead-scoring model can frame conversion as binary classification. When positive outcomes are rare, accuracy alone can hide missed converters; precision and recall describe different error trade-offs. A model output may be a ranking score or probability, but it is not automatically calibrated. Calibration compares predicted probabilities with observed event frequencies. Feature-importance measures help describe model behavior but do not show that a feature causes conversion.
Defining a conversion label and training a binary classifier on historical examples.
Choosing record actions or properties as candidate features, as in documented lead-scoring workflows.
Comparing precision and recall when converters are uncommon.
Checking whether estimated probabilities match observed conversion frequencies before using them as probabilities.
Monitor data and performance after deployment because input distributions and conversion patterns can change. Re-evaluate calibration and threshold choices on current data, and document the outcome label and review period.
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Lead scoring ranks or estimates the likelihood of a defined conversion using information about prospective customers. A model’s score is a decision aid whose usefulness depends on outcome definitions, data quality, class balance and evaluation.
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When converters are rare, a model that predicts “no conversion” for nearly everyone can achieve high accuracy while missing the leads of interest. Precision and recall provide additional information about positive predictions and missed positives.
When conversions are infrequent, a model that labels every lead as non-converting may still achieve high accuracy while missing positives. Evaluate precision and recall or another metric suited to the use case.
HubSpot documents custom scores based on record actions or properties; the exact criteria depend on the organization’s model.
A model may return a score or estimated probability. Calibration is a separate property: predicted probabilities must be compared with observed outcomes.
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