What happened
Michael Burry announced in his September 28, 2026 investment newsletter that he is replacing earlier short positions on AI‑related equities with put options that expire as early as June 2026. The moves include June‑expiration puts on Micron Technology (MU) with a $500 strike, similar‑dated puts on Nebius (NBIS) in the double‑digit strike range, and September‑2027 puts on the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) in the low‑$400s. He also enlarged his put position on Palantir (PLTR) to a September‑2027 expiration in the low‑$100s. Burry said the shift reflects a belief that “the bubble in AI may burst sooner than later,” and he cited a recent Ares Management report warning that AI revenue growth may not sustain current capital‑expenditure levels. The investor’s rationale combines a desire for tighter leverage, tax considerations, and a strategic view that a disappointing AI earnings season could trigger rapid capital redeployment by company boards.
In his September 28 newsletter, Burry explained that he is moving timelines up and therefore wants more leverage in his short positions, opting for put options that are "relatively cheap due to exceptionally tight volatility measures such as the VIX."
He replaced his existing short on Micron with June‑expiration puts at a $500 strike, and similarly swapped his short on Nebius for June puts in the double‑digit strike range. His short on the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) was rolled into September 2027 puts in the low‑$400s, while his Palantir short was enlarged to a September 2027 put position in the low‑$100s.
Burry cited an Ares Management report that highlighted the fragility of AI companies’ reliance on sustained capital‑spending, noting that a single disappointing quarter could trigger board‑level capital redeployment.
Why it matters
Burry’s repositioning signals a high‑profile investor’s growing skepticism toward the AI sector’s valuation and growth assumptions. Because Burry’s past short on the housing market proved prescient, his current stance may influence other investors and hedge funds, potentially increasing volatility in AI‑related stocks such as Micron, Palantir, and semiconductor ETFs. The Ares Management report referenced by Burry underscores a broader industry concern: many AI firms are financing expansion on the expectation of sustained capital spending, a premise that could be tested if AI revenue falls short of forecasts. If the bubble does contract, it could lead to a cascade of earnings misses, reduced R&D budgets, and a slowdown in AI‑driven product rollouts, affecting downstream industries that rely on AI technologies. Moreover, the shift to short‑term puts suggests Burry expects any correction to materialize within months, which could accelerate market reactions and tighter risk management among institutional investors.
Burry’s reputation for correctly anticipating the 2008 housing‑market collapse gives to his current AI outlook, potentially swaying market sentiment and prompting other investors to reassess exposure to AI stocks.
The Ares report’s focus on capital‑expenditure assumptions raises questions about the sustainability of AI‑driven growth, especially for firms that have expanded aggressively based on projected AI revenue streams.
If AI revenue underperforms, the sector could experience a rapid revaluation, affecting not only pure‑play AI companies but also broader technology and semiconductor markets that depend on AI demand.
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What to watch next
Key indicators to monitor include upcoming earnings reports from major AI‑focused companies, especially those in semiconductor manufacturing and AI software services, as well as any revisions to capital‑expenditure guidance in the sector. Investors should watch for further commentary from Ares Management or other research firms on AI spending trends, and for any additional position changes by Burry or other prominent investors that could amplify market pressure. The performance of the Nasdaq Composite and AI‑heavy indices in the next quarter will also be a barometer of whether Burry’s bearish timeline aligns with broader market sentiment.
Earnings releases from AI‑centric firms in the next two months, particularly those reporting on capital‑expenditure and revenue guidance.
Further research or commentary from Ares Management or similar analysts on AI spending trends and market health.
Any additional position adjustments by Burry or other high‑profile investors that could signal a broader shift toward bearish bets on AI.
Movements in the Nasdaq Composite and AI‑heavy indices, which will reflect market reaction to Burry’s stance and any emerging data on AI sector performance.